Publications

Monthly Economic Report: October

India’s economy remains resilient amidst the global slowdown, supported by robust domestic demand. Major rating agencies express confidence, maintaining a 6.7% growth projection for FY24 and raising the medium-term estimate by 70 basis points to 6.2%. Agriculture sees progress, ensuring food buffer growth, while manufacturing and services sectors expand. Private consumption, especially during the festive season, drives growth, bolstered by savings, low unemployment, and a wealth effect from rising real estate and equity markets—digital transactions surge, indicating a shift towards a cashless economy.

Monthly Economic Report: September

India’s macroeconomic outlook for FY24 is optimistic and supported by strong domestic fundamentals. • Investment demand is rising, and additional growth drivers include broad-based industrial growth and a thriving residential property market. Industrial capacity utilisation has improved, and increased demand for residential properties, combined with public sector capex, strengthens investment. Core inflation is steadily decreasing, and food inflation has eased, though notable challenges exist. Global inflation in 2023 was expected to decline due to the central bank’s tight monetary policies, but challenges arose from geopolitical uncertainties and volatile crude oil prices. Sluggish global demand impacts India’s trade, but recovery is projected in H2FY24. With a lower trade deficit and a comfortable forex reserve position, India’s external account appears robust. RBI’s forward-looking surveys on manufacturing, consumer confidence, employment, and inflation expectations yield optimistic results. Overall, in line with IMF projections, India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world in FY24.

Monthly Economic Report: August 2023

India’s economic prospects for FY24 remain promising as economic activity maintains momentum. High-frequency indicators suggest that the second quarter of FY24 also shows positive signs. While there was a monsoon deficit in August, it was partially addressed in September, a positive development. The prices of specific food items that contributed to the inflation rate exceeding 7% in July are declining.
The private sector is in good shape, as indicated by data on advance tax payments for the second
quarter, showing that they are actively investing. Although there is a concern about the recent increase in oil prices, it is not yet causing alarm. In summary, the baseline projection for India’s economic growth in FY24 is 6.5% at 2011-12 prices.

G20 Summit: Global Cooperation and Key Agreements

The G20 Summit, held recently, resulted in a consensus declaration that refrained from condemning Russia for the war in Ukraine. Instead, it emphasised the importance of refraining from using force to acquire territory and focused on broader economic issues. Key discussion areas included trade, technology, tourism, grain/food/energy security, economies and financial markets, climate changes, and health. 

Monthly Economic Report: July 2023

The fourth quarter of FY23 saw stronger-than-anticipated growth, primarily fueled by robust domestic investment. This impressive performance prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revise India’s real GDP growth projection for FY24 upwards by 20 basis points in its July 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The strength of domestic investment can be attributed to the government’s unwavering commitment to capital expenditure, poised to be a driving force for future growth. In the FY24 Budget, the Union Government raised capital outlay by a significant 33.3%, increasing the proportion of capital expenditure in total expenditure from 12.3% in FY18 to 22.4% in FY24 (BE). The Union Government’s initiatives have also encouraged states to boost their capital expenditure, with state capital spending rising by an impressive 74.3% year-on-year in Q1 of FY24, complementing the Central Government’s 59.1% increase in the same quarter

Monthly Economic Report: June 2023

The overall economic situation has stabilized after a year characterized by worldwide uncertainties and fluctuations. Despite lingering uncertainties due to unfavorable geopolitical events, the strain on supply chains has eased, and indications suggest a reduction in inflationary pressures. Risks in the banking sector appear to be under control, and concerns about recessions in most advanced eEconomies are gradually dissipating.

Monthly Economic Report: May 2023

India’s macroeconomic management has been commendable despite unprecedented global challenges and domestic balance sheet issues in the banking and corporate sectors. It has significantly contributed to enhancing macroeconomic stability and enabling a faster recovery compared to other countries.

Monthly Economic Report: April 2023

With sustained growth, increased capacity utilization triggering 75% investment, corporates are now investing in new capacity. Capital goods and construction/infrastructure goods production, as estimated in the IIP, grew steadily in Q4 of FY23, along with imports of capital goods. India benefits from strong domestic demand with consistent and widespread growth in consumption and traction in capacity creation and real estate investment. Although it is too early to make definitive predictions for the entire year, the promising start to the financial year indicates positive prospects in the future.

Monthly Economic Report: March 2023

India’s economy has shown strength in FY23, and it is estimated to grow at 7%, higher than the trend rate and the growth of other major economies. The growth is supported by improving macroeconomic stability, such as an improved current account deficit, easing inflation pressure, and a strong banking system that can withstand policy rate increases. The April 2023 update of the WEO predicts India to be the fastest-growing economy in FY24, with even more robust stability in macroeconomic variables.

Monthly Economic Report: February 2023

The Indian economy is projected to grow at 7% in 2022-23, despite external challenges. Real GDP estimates for Q3 of 2022-23 reaffirm the ability of the Indian economy to grow on the strength of its domestic demand even as a rise in global uncertainties slows global output.

Monthly Economic Report: January 2023

The Union Budget FY24 includes measures such as increased capital expenditure, infrastructure development, green economy initiatives, and strengthening of financial markets, expected to promote job creation and spur economic growth. Additionally, measures for the MSME sector are expected to aid small enterprises by reducing the cost of funds. The revision of tax slabs under the New Personal Income Tax Regime is predicted to boost consumption, providing impetus to economic growth. Easier KYC norms, expansion of DigiLocker services, and a focus on digitisation and last-mile connectivity are also expected to strengthen financial markets. Despite potential risks, the Indian economy is confident thanks to a history of macroeconomic stability.

Monthly Economic Report: December 2022

Despite global challenges, international agencies are still forecasting India as the fastest-growing major economy, with a projected growth rate of 6.5-7.0% in FY23. This positive outlook is due to the resilience of the Indian economy, particularly with the rebound of private consumption replacing exports as the main driver of growth. The increase in private consumption has led to a boost in production activity, resulting in a rise in capacity utilization across industries.

Union Budget 2023-24

“The budget is beautifully balanced as India is all set to become a US$ 5 trillion economy…the budget gives a big leg-up to capital investment, looks at MSMEs as they are the engine of growth, sustains capital investment and also gives a push to the private sector while giving tax reliefs to individuals and the middle class.” – Finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman

Monthly Economic Report (November 2022)

India’s economy grew quicker than other economies in the first half of 2022-23, attributable to increased demand and investments. The inflation rate has been declining since October, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching its lowest point in eleven months in November, and it was beneath the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper target band for the first time in 2022, mainly due to the decrease in food inflation.

Market Research: Frozen Bovine Meat Market in Vietnam

India is still dominating Vietnam’s frozen buffalo meat import with the main products being boneless cuts