Search Publications

  • Monthly Economic Report – July 2022

    India’s growth outlook for 2022-23, though lower than projections made before the outbreak of the conflict in Europe which resulted in a sharply higher price for crude oil and other essential commodities, is still comfortably high and confirms the recovery of the economy from the pandemic-induced contraction in 2021-22. The private sector and banking sector balance sheets are healthy and there is an appetite to borrow and to lend respectively. Therefore, barring further adverse shocks to commodity prices, India’s terms of trade, economic growth will consolidate and retain its momentum into 2023- 24.

  • Monthly Economic Report (June 2022)

    Economic activity is holding up better than expected despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions; rise in interest rates in America and in India and the elevated price of crude oil and few other commodities. The services sector recovery is continuing, and manufacturing strength is steady. There is an apparent keenness to invest on the part of the private sector. Banks are willing to lend and their financial health, as the central bank’s stress tests reveal, is quite strong. Brisk GST receipts monthly confirm the momentum in the economic activity.

  • Monthly Economic Report (May 2022)

    The balancing act between maintaining growth momentum, restraining inflation, keeping the fiscal deficit within budget and ensuring a gradual evolution of the exchange rate in line with underlying external fundamentals of the economy is the challenge for policymaking this financial year. Successfully pulling it off will require prioritising macroeconomic stability over near-term growth.

  • Monthly Economic Report (April 2022)

    IMF World Economic Outlook April 2022 projects India to be the fastest growing economy at 8.2% in FY 2022 and 6.9% in FY 2023. Lending credence to these projections, the fiscal year 2022-23 has begun with strong growth momentum in economic activity as indicated by the robust performance of high-frequency indicators such as e-way bill generation, ETC toll collection, electricity consumption, and PMI manufacturing and services. Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy.

  • Monthly Economic Report (March 2022)

    According to the second advanced estimates, several contact sensitive sectors are yet to cross the levels of pre-pandemic growth. The Production Linked Incentives (PLI) schemes are expected to enhance the export potential of multiple sectors of the economy and increase self sufficiency in manufacturing. Initiatives such as Gatishakti are expected to bolster capital investments in infrastcurture and bridge existing gaps in the system. Structural reforms initiated by the government are expected to serve as guardrails against external shocks to economic activities. The persistence of high prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has the potential to impact economic activity. Although the aformentioned instability can pose supply chain disruptions and upside risks to information, positive domestic trends including the increase in GST collections and capital expenditure could moderate the impact.

  • Monthly Economic Report (February 2022)

    The second advance estimates of GDP released on 28th February 2022 signals the full recovery of India’s economy with real GDP of FY 2021-22 estimated to go past the output of pre-pandemic levels. Further, real GDP estimates for Q3 of 2021-22 indicate strong growth momentum, aided by rapid vaccination coverage along with accommodative monetary and fiscal policy support.

  • Monthly Economic Report (January 2022)

    Overall economic activity has continued to be resilient amid the third wave of COVID-19. This is reflected in the robust performance of several high-frequency indicators like power consumption, PMI manufacturing, exports, and e-way bill generation. Further, the Union Budget’s commitment towards public infrastructure development will encourage private investment, augmenting inclusive and sustainable growth. It is a testament to the farsightedness of policymaking that the Indian economy that contracted by (-) 6.6% in 2020-21, is now projected to grow the quickest among the group of large nations in 2022-23.

  • Monthly Economic Report (December 2021)

    As India continues with the rapid vaccination program, it has not only caught up with its pre-pandemic Q2 output but is expected to surpass it over the next fiscal. India is poised to be among the few economies that will rebound strongly from the pandemic-induced economic contraction of 2020-21.

  • Union Budget 2022-23

    Infrastructure emerged as the topmost priority for the Narendra Modi government as the finance minister Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Budget 2022-2023 will lay the foundation for economic growth through public investment as Asia’s third-largest economy emerges from a pandemic-induced slump.

  • Monthly Economic Report (November 2021)

    Although 2020-21 is being deemed as a “catch-up” year for global economies, the RBI has projected a 9.5% GDP growth for FY 2021-22, implying a full economic recovery, which can be attributed to India’s nuanced structural reforms. Leveraging on necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on course to be one of the few global economies to rebound strongly from pandemic-induced economic contraction.

  • Monthly Economic Report (October 2021)

    Atmanirbhar Bharat Mission continues to play a critical role in shaping India’s economic recovery – both through the signaling of business opportunities and expansion of spending channels. It can be concluded that leveraging on necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India’s investment cycle is ready to catalyze its recovery towards becoming the fastest growing economy in the world.

  • Monthly Economic Report (September 2021)

    The current pace of growth coupled with improvements across fiscal parameters attests to the resilience of the Indian economy. The strong performance of multiple sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and industries as well as increased revenue collection and resumption of services are expected to sustain the nation’s overall growth trajectory.

  • Monthly Economic Report (August 2021)

    India’s robust V-shaped recovery from the aftermath of the brutal second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is reflected through the provisional GDP estimates for the April-June (Q1) quarter of FY 2021-22. This is also evidenced by the sharp growth in the agriculture, manufacturing & construction sectors, the gradual revival of the services sector after the relaxation of lockdown restrictions, and the sharp rise in the country’s
    services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) at an 18-month high of 56.7. Vaccination coverage is expanding at a rapid pace , with around 60 percent of India’s adult population being vaccinated with at least first dose, as on September 8, 2021. The current recovery of the economy is broad based and fast, in terms of both supply and demand, indicative of the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

  • Monthly Economic Report (July 2021)

    In spite of the vaccination drive going on smoothly and rapidly, the global resurgence of the highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 between May to July has raised major concerns and placed emphasis on the importance of following social distancing and COVID appropriate behavior, despite a decline in the number of cases. India’s cumulative vaccine doses administered so far amount to  515 million, with 49.8 percent of the population having received the first dose and 14.2 being fully vaccinated. Aided by the receding second wave, this has paved the way for India’s economic recovery. 

  • Monthly Economic Report (June 2021)

    The Indian economy is on the path of recovery from the impact of the second wave of Covid-19, with targeted fiscal relief, monetary policy measures and accelerated vaccinations across the country. A fall in the daily COVID cases has been observed since the latter half of May 2021, along with the doubling of the daily vaccination rate from 1.93 million  to 4.13 million in June, at the end of which around 78 percent of districts reached a COVID positivity rate below 5 percent.