In an era marked by escalating global trade tensions and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience and robust growth. The above findings are from Reserve Bank of India’s March 2025 bulletin which highlights the state of the economy in the country. The latest data-driven analysis underscores the strength of domestic fundamentals amidst a volatile global backdrop. While global economic uncertainties persist, India’s economy shows strong growth, supported by robust consumption and government spending. Inflation has moderated, and policy measures have helped stabilize market liquidity. However, foreign portfolio outflows and currency depreciation remain key risks.
India’s total exports during April-August 2025* is estimated at US$ 349.35 Billion registering a positive growth of 6.18 percent. Total imports during April-August 2025* is estimated at US$ 390.78 Billion registering a growth of 2.49 percent. More details
- Merchandise exports during August 2025 were US$ 35.10 Billion as compared to US$ 32.89 Billion in August 2024.
- Merchandise imports during August 2025 were US$ 61.59 Billion as compared to US$ 68.53 Billion in August 2024.
- Merchandise exports during April-August 2025 were US$ 184.13 Billion as compared to US$ 179.60 Billion during April-August 2024.
- Merchandise imports during April-August 2025 were US$ 306.52 Billion as compared to US$ 300.12 Billion during April-August 2024.
- Merchandise trade deficit during April-August 2025 was US$ 122.39 Billion as compared to US$ 120.52 Billion during April-August 2024.
- Non-petroleum and non-gems & jewellery exports in August 2025 were US$ 28.31 Billion compared to US$ 26.68 Billion in August 2024.
- Non-petroleum, non-gems & jewellery (gold, silver & precious metals) imports in August 2025 were US$ 41.02 Billion compared to US$ 41.41 Billion in August 2024.
- The estimated value of services export for August 2025* is US$ 34.06 Billion as compared to US$ 30.36 Billion in August 2024.
- The estimated value of services imports for August 2025* is US$ 17.45 Billion as compared to US$ 16.46 Billion in August 2024.
- The estimated value of service exports during April-August 2025* is US$ 165.22 Billion as compared to US$ 149.43 Billion in April-August 2024.
- The estimated value of service imports during April-August 2025* is US$ 84.25 Billion as compared to US$ 81.18 Billion in April-August 2024.
- The services trade surplus for April-August 2025* is US$ 80.97 Billion as compared to US$ 68.25 Billion in April-August 2024.
Global Setting
Trade War & Tariffs Impacting Growth
- The global economy entered 2025 with strong momentum but is now slowing due to increased protectionism and trade restrictions.
- US-China tariff escalations could reduce US GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2025 and shrink the economy by 0.3-0.4% in the long run.
- OECD lowered global GDP forecasts to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 due to slowing demand.
Market Volatility & Currency Fluctuations
- US dollar lost gains made since November 2024 due to trade policy uncertainty.
- European bond yields surged as Germany and others increased military spending.
- Equity markets worldwide have been volatile, reflecting fears of slowing growth.
Commodity Markets & Inflationary Pressures
- Global oil prices fell 15% since mid-January 2025 due to reduced demand expectations.
- Gold prices hit a record high of $3000 per ounce due to investor flight to safety.
- Food production outlook improved, with cereal production exceeding 2024 levels.
Despite global economic headwinds, India’s growth remains stable at 6.5%, supported by strong domestic demand. Inflation is under control, though core inflation remains sticky, necessitating careful monetary management. Trade challenges persist due to weak global demand, but a narrowing trade deficit offers some relief. While foreign investor outflows pose risks, robust domestic investment provides resilience. The RBI’s proactive policies have played a crucial role in stabilizing liquidity and inflation expectations. Overall, India’s economy is well-positioned for growth, but uncertainties in global markets, financial volatility, and trade disruptions remain key risks. Sustained policy support and domestic resilience will be essential in maintaining economic momentum.
For more details, please refer to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and the Reserve Bank of India.