June 24, 2025
The revision reflects expectations of a normal monsoon, easing crude oil prices, and favourable fiscal and monetary policies
The outlook coincides with global economic fragility, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy uncertainty
Ongoing unrest in the Middle East and potential spikes in oil prices pose risks to Asia-Pacific economies
S&P believes well-supplied energy markets are likely to limit long-term oil price shocks
India’s economic momentum appears resilient despite global headwinds, with S&P Global Ratings raising the country’s GDP growth projection to 6.5% for the current fiscal year. The upward revision reflects expectations of a normal monsoon, lower crude oil prices, income tax reliefs, and monetary easing measures.
In its latest Asia Pacific Economic Outlook, S&P underlined that India’s strong domestic demand and limited exposure to goods exports are helping cushion the impact of global deceleration. The agency added that this growth trajectory is in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast issued earlier this month.
While India’s outlook remains robust, S&P flagged serious concerns on the global front. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and policy moves such as elevated US import tariffs are likely to dampen global trade, investment, and overall growth. The agency noted that the conflict has escalated over the last 12 days, with the United States targeting three of Iran’s key nuclear sites following hostilities between Israel and Iran.
Despite these risks, S&P believes the global oil market remains sufficiently supplied, reducing the likelihood of a prolonged spike in prices. Even so, the agency warned that persistently high oil prices could hurt Asia-Pacific economies by straining current accounts and increasing inflationary pressures in energy-importing nations.
Source: Times of India