August 8, 2024
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 6.5%, highlighting steady manufacturing growth driven by strong domestic demand
The MPC's growth forecasts for the second, third, and fourth quarters of FY25 remain unchanged at 7.3%, 7.2%, and 7.3%, respectively
Economic Survey, released in July 2024, predicts a growth rate of 6.5-7% for the current fiscal year, citing global uncertainties and domestic challenges
Global rating agencies like the IMF and ADB have also projected India’s growth at 7%, while the Economic Survey noted the need for vigilance against over-financialisation
In its latest review, the Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel has maintained its growth forecast for the Indian economy at 7.2% for the fiscal year 2025. However, the first-quarter growth expectation has been moderated to 7.1%. Governor Shaktikanta Das cited resilient domestic economic activity, supported by favourable weather conditions, as key factors in this outlook.
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee left the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 6.5%, emphasising the steady progress in manufacturing driven by robust domestic demand. The growth projections for the subsequent quarters of FY25 remain consistent with previous estimates, reflecting a stable outlook.
Despite achieving an 8.2% growth rate in FY24, the Economic Survey published ahead of the Union Budget has adopted a more cautious stance, forecasting a growth range of 6.5-7% for the current fiscal year due to global uncertainties and domestic challenges. This conservative projection aligns with estimates from prominent global rating agencies like the IMF and ADB, which forecast a 7% growth rate for India.
The Economic Survey also highlighted the positive prospects for India’s financial sector, albeit with caution regarding the risks of over-financialisation. The satisfactory performance of the southwest monsoon is expected to bolster the agriculture sector and stimulate rural demand, contributing to the overall economic outlook.
Source: Economic Times