Nomura India Index reading hits 126.4% on resumption of business activity

Business activity is yet to be impacted by the ongoing war although inflation is expected to slow down the pace of GDP growth

March 21, 2022

A 26.4% increase has been documented between the NIBRI readings of March 7th and March 14th.

CPI inflation is expected to exceed the RBI target of 2-6%; the index forecasts an inflation rate of 6.3%

Increasing food-energy costs as well as gaps in output are expected to contribute to the hike in CPI Inflation.

The Labour Participation index was documented at 39.3% in the week of March 14th.

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) documented a record high reading of 126.4%  as of the week of March 14, buoyed by the resumption in business activity and the corresponding requirement of services. The reading marks steady progress from the previous week’s reading of 122.8 , and a 26.4% growth from the pre-pandemic levels. The index documents that  business activity currently remains unaffected by the ongoing war or the increase in crude oil prices since November. However, the report anticipates inflationary impact of the war on the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to be at 6.3% , higher than the Reserve Bank’s target of 2-6% owing to gaps in output as well as an increase in food-energy costs. 

The Mobility Index is currently 15.8 Percentage Points (PP) higher than pre-pandemic levels. The labour participation rate indicated marginal growth from 39.0% in the week of March 7th to 39.3% in the week of March 14th. Other indices that indicated positive growth include the Apple Driving Index (increase by 11.7PP), Google Workplace Mobilty (increase by 2.4 PP), Retail and Recreation Index (increase by 3.1PP)