India’s Q4 GDP pegged at 6.1-6.7%, say economists

The official GDP numbers for Q4 FY 2023-24 and provisional estimates for the fiscal year will be released on May 31, 2024

May 27, 2024

The Indian economy showed strong growth of 8.2% in June, 8.1% in September, and 8.4% in December 2023-24

High-frequency data indicates robust growth in trade and hotels during Q4, suggesting continued optimism for future growth

For the current fiscal year, Kotak Mahindra Bank projects growth at 6.6% with potential for an upward adjustment

Both domestic and international institutions, including EY India, forecast a robust 7% growth for India in FY 2024-25

Indian economy shows signs of post-pandemic recovery

According to projections by various economists, India’s GDP in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 is expected to have grown between 6.1 and 6.7%, lower than the over 8% rate recorded in the previous three quarters.

The GDP numbers for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year are scheduled to be released by the government on May 31. According to economists, the expected growth in the 2023-24 fiscal is estimated to be 7.6-7.8%.

The Indian economy showed a promising trend, growing 8.2% in June, 8.1% in September, and 8.4% in December 2023-24. Kotak Mahindra Bank’s chief economist highlighted that high-frequency data suggests robust growth across the board, with trade and hotels holding up in the fourth quarter, instilling optimism for the future.

According to May 31, 2023 estimates, India’s GDP expanded 6.1% in the March quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal year, and the growth for the full fiscal year was 7%.

For the current fiscal year (2024-25), Kotak Mahindra Bank expects growth to be 6.6%, but with an upward bias. Bhardwaj said rural consumption will likely pick up pace, but export growth could be impacted in the second half.

EY India’s chief policy adviser said both domestic and international institutions are forecasting a robust growth of 7% for India in the fiscal year 2025.

India Ratings & Research expects the growth rate for the March quarter to be at 6.2% for 2023-24.
On Tuesday, ICRA projected growth to moderate to a four-quarter low of 6.7% in March. For the full 2023-24 fiscal, ICRA estimates it to be 7.8%. In its monetary policy review in April, the RBI projected growth for 2023-24 at 7%.

Source: Moneycontrol

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