Indian GDP to grow by 7% in FY23: NSO

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) is higher than projections made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the World Bank

January 9, 2023

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) is higher than projections made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the World Bank

The World Bank’s GDP estimation stands at 6.9%

Private consumption is expected to see a 7.7% growth in FY23

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently mentioned that India is a relative "bright spot" in the world economy

India’s GDP is expected to grow at 7% in FY23, which is higher than projections made by the RBI and the World Bank, according to a report from the NSO.

Media reports said that the Indian GDP increased by 9.7% in the April-September of FY23. According to the NSO report, the October-March period of FY23 is expected to increase by 4.5%, based on the department’s estimates on some lead indicators until November and December 2022.  

The RBI has estimated the country’s GDP growth for FY23 at 6.8%, and the World Bank’s estimate stands at 6.9%. However, it grew by 8.7% in FY22. In FY23, Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is expected to grow at 6.7%. 

Experts said that The NSO will release the revised estimates of annual national accounts for the last three years by January-end, which could change the base for FY23 estimates. Additionally,  the second Advance Estimate for FY23 and the third quarter of the same fiscal will be out in February end.

Sectoral increases

Agriculture is expected to increase by 3.5%, electricity by 9%, construction by 9.1% and manufacturing by 1.6% in FY23. The services sector, on the other hand, will be the key growth indicator of the economy, witnessing a growth of 9.1% in the same period. 

Private consumption is expected to see a 7.7% growth in FY23. Government expenditure by the Centre and the States is expected to remain at 3.1%. The NSO report also said that the economy is expected to make a recovery by 11.5% in FY23. 

Additional projections

In the first GDP advance estimates, nominal GDP is expected to increase by 15.4%. Media reports suggest that tax revenues are going to be much higher than what had been budgeted and would provide adequate fiscal headroom to achieve the fiscal deficit target of 6.4%.

Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently mentioned that India is a relative “bright spot” in the world economy, backed by the country’s macroeconomic policies, a world-class digital public infrastructure, and a rise in exports. 

Media reports said that the IMF has forecast a 6.8% growth for India in FY23, and 6.1% in FY24.


Sources: Business Standard | Economic Times

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