Indian economy recovers rapidly, with upswing in 19 of 22 eco indicators

The indicators suggest a strong economic recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to experts.

December 7, 2021

19 among the 22 High Frequency Indicators (HFIs) have achieved full recovery at their pre-pandemic levels.

Recovery is way above 100 percent with a few of these indicators.

Recently released GDP estimates further reiterate economic recovery with a Y-O-Y growth of 8.4%.

Currently, India also has the fourth largest forex reserves in the world at US$ 640.4 billion.

India is showing strong signs of economic recovery from the impact of the pandemic, with an uptick being witnessed in 19 out of the 22 economic indicators compared to the pre-COVID levels. Since the reporting of the first COVID case in India in January 2020, high -frequency indicators (HFIs) are being closely monitored to follow the economy’s progress. Presently, the 19 among the 22 HFIs have achieved full recovery as their latest levels in the months of September, October and November this year, higher than their pre-pandemic levels in the corresponding months of 2019, according to official sources. With a few of these indicators, such as e-way bills by volume, merchandise exports, coal production and rail freight traffic, the recovery is way above 100 percent, indicating the gathering of momentum in the economic growth over the pre-pandemic levels of output in addition to the complete recovery.

The recently released GDP estimates of Q2 (July-September) act as a further indication of the economic growth, with their year-on-year growth in real terms at 8.4%, taking the output above the pre-pandemic level of Q2 output in 2019-20. The Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) amounted to US$ 14.3 million in October at 157 percent of the pre-COVID levels of 2019, while UPI volumes stood at nearly four times at US$ 55.8 million. Merchandise imports stood at US$ 55.4 billion in October at 146 percent of 2019 levels, while e-way bill volume has reached over twice it’s 2019 levels in October to US$ 0.98 million. The production of coal increased to 131 percent to 114.1 million tonnes in September while rail freight traffic rose to 125 percent. Additionally, fertiliser sales, power consumption, tractor sales, cement production, port cargo traffic, fuel consumption, air cargo, IIP, and 8-core industries have all reached their pre-COVID levels, according to the sources. Steel consumption, domestic auto sales, and air passenger traffic are the only areas yet to reach their pre-pandemic levels at 99 percent,86 percent and 66 percent of their 2019 levels

Additionally, India currently has the fourth largest foreign exchange reserves in the world at US$ 640.4 billion.