India-U.S. trade deal likely by fall despite sticking points on steel tariffs and agriculture

Negotiations progress with hopes for a limited “mini-deal” by September–November, as both sides work through tariff and market access hurdles

June 11, 2025

An initial deal was earlier expected by July 9, but unresolved issues have extended the timeline

India seeks relief from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium, which were doubled to 50% in June

The U.S. is pressing India to open its agriculture market, raising concerns about domestic farmer protections

Despite friction, officials on both sides described the talks as productive and constructive

India and the United States are on track to formalise a trade agreement by fall 2025, even though contentious issues such as metal tariffs and agricultural access continue to delay a preliminary accord. The initial deadline for a limited “mini-deal” was informally set before July 9, but negotiations have now been extended to the U.S. fall season, from September to November.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal led a delegation to the U.S. last month to advance the talks. This was followed by a visit from an American team of negotiators to India, which concluded on June 10. While both sides have described the discussions as “productive,” specific key issues remain unresolved.

A government official involved in the process confirmed that both nations were committed to negotiating the first tranche of a multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall 2025. This timeline was first announced during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. in February, when a joint statement highlighted the intent to finalise a “mutually beneficial” deal.

However, key challenges remain. India continues to seek relief from steep U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. administration first raised import duties on these metals to 25% in March and doubled them to 50% on June 4 through an executive order. The Indian government, objecting to these hikes, had informed the World Trade Organisation in May that it reserved the right to respond with reciprocal measures. Since then, the matter has been under bilateral discussion.

On the U.S. side, there is a strong push for greater access to India’s agricultural market. Indian officials argue that conceding too much in this area could jeopardise protections for domestic farmers, making it a particularly sensitive issue in the talks.

Despite these hurdles, momentum around the deal continues. Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick indicated that a trade agreement with India would likely materialise in the “not too distant future.”

The July 9 deadline remains symbolically important, coinciding with the end of a 90-day pause on the U.S. president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff hikes. However, negotiators on both sides now appear to be working toward a broader and more balanced agreement that can be concluded in the fall timeframe.

Source: The Hindu

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