May 6, 2025
The United States, China, and Germany are expected to remain the top three global economies
India is on track to reach a US$5 trillion economy by 2027, driven by near double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027
The country’s GDP is estimated to cross US$6.8 trillion by 2030, according to IMF projections
India’s growth rate in 2026 and 2027 is expected to outpace major economies, including the U.S., China, Japan, and the UK
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its April Outlook, projected that India is poised to overtake Japan in 2025 to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. The IMF estimates India’s gross domestic product at current prices will touch US$4,187.02 billion in 2025, narrowly surpassing Japan’s forecast of US$4,186.43 billion.
The top three global economies — the United States (US$30,507.22 billion), China (US$19,231.71 billion), and Germany (US$4,744.8 billion) — will maintain their rankings, with India climbing just behind them.
The IMF stated that India could achieve its target of becoming a US$5 trillion economy by 2027. This milestone would follow two consecutive years of robust growth, forecast at 9.9% in 2026 and 10.2% in 2027. By 2030, India’s economy is expected to exceed US$6.8 trillion.
An analysis of the IMF data reveals that India’s projected growth rates in 2026 and 2027 are higher than those of the world’s largest economies, including the U.S., China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, regardless of their individual GDP sizes.
In the near term, India is projected to grow by 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. The IMF emphasised that the 2025 forecast reflects a stable outlook, largely supported by domestic private consumption, especially in rural areas. However, it noted a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to the January forecast, attributing the change to heightened global uncertainty and trade tensions.
Despite these headwinds, India’s growth forecast remains significantly stronger than that of China (4%), the United States (1.8%), Japan (0.6%), and the United Kingdom (1.1%), reinforcing its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
Source: The Hindu