June 30, 2022
The report also provided insights into the infrastructure needed, manufacturing capability, policies, and technology-development priorities in the sector
The report has also constructed future scenarios based on three major factors influencing the market penetration of electric two-wheelers: demand incentives, battery cost, and vehicle performance in terms of range and power
Sales of electric two-wheelers may reach 250 lakh units if there is sufficient installed capacity of electric two-wheelers and charging infrastructure
The report aims at a driven scenario where the sales of electric two-wheelers can reach 54.91 lakh units provided there is a 2% reduction in battery cost and no change in range and performance
There will be a 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY2026-27, according to a report titled ‘Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India’, launched by NITI Aayog.
The report also provided insights into the infrastructure needed, manufacturing capability, policies, and technology-development priorities in the sector. It is estimated that if an R&D programme enhances the range and power of electric two-wheelers by 5% annually between FY 2023-24 and 2025-26, and by 10% in FY 2026-2027, the penetration of electric-two wheelers is slated to reach about 72% by FY 2031-32.
Although it is estimated that the sale of electric two-wheelers will cross 220 lakh units by FY2028-29, the number may reach 250 lakh units if there is sufficient installed capacity of electric two-wheelers and charging infrastructure, according to the report.
Based on the analysis, the report said India’s shift to electric mobility, particularly in the two-wheelers segment, may happen faster than anticipated. The report has also constructed future scenarios based on three major factors influencing the market penetration of electric two-wheelers: demand incentives, battery cost, and vehicle performance in terms of range and power.
The report also presents an incentive-driven scenario where the sales of electric two-wheelers can reach 54.91 lakh units by FY2031 and market penetration of 21.86%, provided there is a 2% reduction in battery cost and no change in range and performance.