Economy recovers from Omicron surge: NIBRI

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) comprises Google mobility indices, driving mobility from Apple, power demand, and labour participation rate

February 9, 2022

The NIBRI reached 113.2 for the week ending February 6

Labour participation rate increased to 40.5% from 39.3%

The waning of the third wave, lower public risk perception, and a gradual relaxation of state-wide restrictions have played a major part in this upswing

Nomura expects that the impact of the third wave of the pandemic will be limited to January

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) increased by 11.5 percentage points (pp) to reach 113.2 for the week ending February 6, from 104.8 in the previous week. This increase can be attributed to increased mobility, with Google workplace and retail & recreation mobility increasing by 9 pp and 6.7 pp, respectively, from the prior week. In addition, the labour participation rate increased to 40.5% from 39.3%, as power demand increased by 13.3% week-on-week from 0.3% in the previous week.

The waning of the third wave, lower public risk perception, and a gradual relaxation of state-wide restrictions have played a major part in this upswing, as per Nomura. In addition, The January GST e-way bills have also been strong and daily railway passenger revenues are almost back to pre-third wave levels. Freight revenues continue to rise and the drop in domestic flight departures has been at a minimum.

Nomura expects that the impact of the third wave of the pandemic will be limited to January, and predicts that the GDP for FY22 will chart at 8.7%.